MM2 Halloween Box Odds: The Math Behind That 0.2% Embersickle
TL;DR, bestie
One Halloween Box costs 600 Candies or 1 Halloween Key, and the Embersickle has a 0.2% chance. On average, that’s 1 in 500 boxes (300,000 Candies). Opening all 13 pass keys gives you about a 2.6% chance of at least one. You’d need about 346 boxes for a coin-flip chance. The Chroma Embersickle (0.004%) is 1 in 25,000. The Legendary Embergun (4%) is much friendlier: 13 keys give you about a 41% shot.
🗓️ Last updated: 1 November 2026 — box odds re-checked; event ends Mon 16 Nov: 10am PT / 1pm ET / 6pm GMT / 5am AEDT (Tue 17 Nov) / 7am NZDT (Tue 17 Nov)
“0.2%” sounds small but not impossible, and that’s exactly why it’s dangerous. Let’s turn MM2’s Halloween Box odds into numbers you can actually feel, so you can decide how many Candies to throw at the box (spoiler: not many).
The published odds
| Rarity | Chance | Items |
|---|---|---|
| Common | 70% | CandyCorn, Skulls, Bombs, Bullets |
| Uncommon | 18% | Glow, Brew, Drool |
| Rare | 8% | Catseye, Raven |
| Legendary | 4% | Embergun |
| Godly | 0.2% | Embersickle |
| Chroma Godly | 0.004% | Chroma Embersickle |
Odds from the MM2 Wiki’s 2026 Halloween Box listing.
These are the chances for each rarity, not each item. Within a rarity, the items share the roll. The figures add up to 100.204%, so the Chroma chance is most likely carved out of the Godly roll rather than added on top. The wiki doesn’t say, and the difference is tiny.
Your chance of at least one Embersickle
Every box is a fresh roll. The game doesn’t remember your bad luck, and there’s no confirmed pity system. The chance of getting at least one in n boxes is 1 − 0.998ⁿ.
| Boxes opened | Candies (at 600) | Chance of at least one Embersickle |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 600 | 0.2% |
| 13 (all pass keys) | 7,800 | 2.6% |
| 50 | 30,000 | 9.5% |
| 100 | 60,000 | 18.1% |
| 250 | 150,000 | 39.4% |
| 346 | 207,600 | 50% |
| 500 | 300,000 | 63.2% |
| 1,000 | 600,000 | 86.5% |
Two things jump out:
- The “average” of 500 boxes only gives you 63%. More than a third of players who open 500 boxes still get nothing.
- Even 1,000 boxes isn’t a guarantee. About 1 in 7 players would still miss out.
For comparison, the whole battle pass including the Emberbow is 116,800 Candies, roughly 195 boxes’ worth. That’s a 32% Embersickle chance for the same grind as a guaranteed Ancient.
The other rarities
| Item | Chance per box | Average boxes per drop | Chance in 13 keys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Common | 70% | about 1.4 | Basically certain |
| Any Uncommon | 18% | about 5.6 | About 92% |
| Any Rare | 8% | 12.5 | About 66% |
| Embergun (Legendary) | 4% | 25 | About 41% |
| Embersickle (Godly) | 0.2% | 500 | About 2.6% |
| Chroma Embersickle | 0.004% | 25,000 | About 0.05% |
Your 13 pass keys will mostly give you Commons (about 9 on average), a couple of Uncommons, maybe a Rare, and possibly the Embergun. The Embergun pairs with the Emberknife from Tier 29 of the battle pass.
Why this matters for the Emberscythe
The Emberscythe is crafted at the Cauldron from an Emberbow (Tier 30) and an Embersickle (box only). So the box sits between you and the event’s best knife. Your options:
| Route | Cost | Certainty |
|---|---|---|
| Open boxes until it drops | Average 300,000 Candies | Not guaranteed |
| Trade for an Embersickle | Whatever traders ask | Certain, once you agree a deal |
| Skip the Emberscythe | Nothing | Peace of mind |
Trading is almost always cheaper. Every Embersickle that drops for someone else is one that could end up in a trade, and plenty of players who unbox one won’t have an Emberbow to craft with.
Kiko’s take: Open your 13 free keys for fun. Don’t buy boxes chasing the Embersickle. Put the Candies into the pass, get the Emberbow, and trade for the sickle if you really want the scythe. A 0.2% drop is basically the Y2K bug: everyone talks about it, almost nobody actually sees it happen.
Scam check
Watch for “box odds hacks” and “luck boost” offers. Nothing outside the game changes your odds, and any script or “luck server” claiming it can is either fake or against Roblox’s rules. If someone offers to sell you an Embersickle for real money or gift cards, that’s a scam and against MM2’s rules too. Trade only in-game, and check both value lists before you accept a big offer.
FAQ
What are the Embersickle odds in MM2?
0.2% per Halloween Box, or 1 in 500 on average.
How many boxes for a 50% chance at the Embersickle?
About 346 boxes, which is 207,600 Candies.
What are the Chroma Embersickle odds?
0.004%, or about 1 in 25,000 boxes.
Is there a pity system in the MM2 Halloween Box?
None that the wiki or the game’s published odds mention. Assume every box is a fresh roll.
Should I buy Halloween Boxes with Candies?
Not if you’re chasing the Embersickle. The Candies go further on the battle pass, and trading for the sickle usually works out cheaper.
Last checked: 24 October 2026 (NZDT). Image credits: YouTube – WS10; YouTube – EIC0RE; YouTube – Dafty. More MM2 guides are on the MM2 hub.
kikomii is a fan site and isn’t affiliated with Roblox or Nikilis.
